Daily Market Outlook, June 9, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute – AI Dip-Buyers Return as Oil Spike Fades

Global equities have staged a strong rebound as investors moved back into AI-linked stocks and oil unwound more of Monday’s Middle East-driven spike. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 2.5%, recovering from its sharpest fall since March, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged as much as 8%. SK Hynix jumped 11%, helping to pull the wider chip complex higher after Monday’s sell-off. The move followed a strong Wall Street session, where the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index rose more than 5%. The overnight price action is, in many ways, the mirror image of the previous day. Brent is back around $93.50/bbl, close to Friday’s close, as the initial escalation premium continues to unwind. Reports that Trump is wavering on continued support for Israel if it keeps up military action against Iran appear to have contributed to hopes of de-escalation. Iran and Israel have also signalled some willingness to pause hostilities, reducing immediate fears of a deeper regional conflict and a more disruptive energy shock. Even so, the recovery in risk assets should not be confused with a full reset. The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday, and positive sentiment continued in Asia, but the index remains more than 2% below Friday’s close. Gold has broken below its 200-day moving average, while market pricing still implies just over one full Fed hike by year-end. That suggests the underlying pressure from Friday’s much stronger US labour report has not disappeared. Middle East headlines are driving volatility, but the policy implications of a firm labour market are still weighing on equities. AI remains the dominant equity theme. Reports that the SpaceX IPO was oversubscribed, Nvidia and SK Hynix’s collaboration on next-generation chip technology, and Apple’s renewed focus on AI-driven products have all helped restore confidence in the sector. The key lesson from recent sessions is that investors remain willing to buy AI dips, especially when oil falls and geopolitical risk moderates. But valuation sensitivity has increased. The rally is still powerful, just less immune to disappointment than it looked a few weeks ago.

China’s May trade data added to the more constructive overnight tone. Exports rose 19% and imports increased 27%, both above expectations. Stronger Chinese trade can support global industrial sentiment and demand for European capital goods, luxury and autos. But there is a second side to the story. Last year, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that rapid Chinese export growth could displace domestic production and weigh on GDP across Europe. For European investors, the data are therefore both a growth signal and a competitive threat. Japan remains in focus as well. Reports suggest that anticipated BoJ rate hikes could be accompanied by a slower phasing out of reductions in quarterly bond purchases by Q2 2027. That would be an attempt to balance policy normalisation with market stability. With USDJPY still near sensitive levels, the BoJ and Ministry of Finance are trying to tighten the policy mix without creating unnecessary volatility in JGBs or forcing disorderly FX moves. Europe is set for a more cautious opening despite the stronger Asian session. Investors are likely to keep watching the Gulf situation, where the temporary pause in hostilities between Israel and Iran is welcome but not yet enough to remove geopolitical risk premia entirely. Brent near $93.50 is much less alarming than the highs seen during the initial escalation, but it remains high enough to matter for inflation, household incomes and central-bank reaction functions.

In the UK, the BRC retail sales monitor looked strong at first glance. Total sales rose 3.7% y/y in May, while like-for-like sales increased 3.4%. Good weather appears to have supported activity, and the timing of bank holidays makes the underlying signal harder to read. Smoothing through the Easter and seasonal distortions, the three-month average growth rate was 1.6% y/y. With BRC shop prices rising 1.2% y/y, that implies only a modest pace of real volume growth. In other words, the data are not weak, but they do not undermine the broader picture of a cautious UK consumer. Corporate news also offers a few European focal points. Swiss lawmakers are reportedly considering a proposal that would ease capital requirements for UBS, potentially reducing the burden from planned legislation. In the UK, GSK has agreed to acquire US-listed cancer drug developer Nuvalent for $10.6bn, strengthening its lung cancer treatment portfolio and highlighting continued appetite for strategic pharma deals despite the more volatile macro backdrop.

The broader macro message is that markets are still swinging between two narratives. The first is constructive: geopolitical de-escalation, lower oil and renewed AI dip-buying. The second is more restrictive: a strong US labour market, higher Fed pricing and lingering inflation risks. Yesterday and overnight, the first narrative won. But the second has not gone away. The oil spike is fading, and AI dip-buyers are back, giving global equities a clear relief rally. But with the S&P 500 still below Friday’s level, gold breaking technical support, and Fed hike pricing still elevated, the rebound is not yet a clean all-clear. For now, markets are repricing away from immediate geopolitical panic — not away from the tighter policy implications of stronger US data.

Overnight Headlines

• China Exports Surge Tops Forecasts As AI Propels Booming Trade

• US Asks China To Resume Rare-Earth Exports To Japan

• Katayama: Japan Undergoing Biggest Budget Reform Since 1945

• Korea Upgrades Economic Growth, Reinforcing BoK Hawkish Shift

• Macron To Host Video Call Between G7 Nations And China

• Trump, Netanyahu Clash Over Diverging Goals In Middle East War

• US Army Apache Helicopter Down Near Strait Of Hormuz

• OpenAI Confidentially Files For IPO

• Sources Say Anthropic To Release Public Version Of Mythos Tomorrow

• Apple, Google Team On AI As Apple Intelligence Awaits China Approval

• Apple Delays Siri AI Rollout In EU Amid Regulatory Frictions

• US Expands List Of Chinese Tech Firms Linked To Beijing’s Military

• Aussie Consumers Remain Pessimistic As Finances Are Squeezed

• NZ Commits To First LNG Import Plant Despite Gas Price Surge

• GSK In Talks To Buy Nuvalent For More Than $9B

• ASML Chief Warns EU Against Directing Chip Supplies

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1925 (EU1.71b), 1.1570 (EU1.04b), 1.1650 (EU709.1m)

• USD/JPY: 159.00 ($1.05b), 157.00 ($1.01b), 158.00 ($681.4m)

• USD/BRL: 4.8300 ($510m), 4.9600 ($419.6m), 5.1500 ($311.5m)

• AUD/USD: 0.7050 (AUD712.6m), 0.6565 (AUD399.3m), 0.6650 (AUD397m)

• USD/CNY: 6.7500 ($400m), 6.7300 ($300m), 6.7000 ($300m)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8950 (EU340.3m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3220 (GBP494.8m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3470 ($570m), 1.3965 ($314.2m).

CFTC Positions as of June 5, 2026: 

• In a notable shift in market dynamics, equity fund speculators have ramped up their net short position on the S&P 500 CME, adding a hefty 38,113 contracts to bring their total to 485,582. Meanwhile, equity fund managers have trimmed their net long position by 23,807 contracts, now sitting at 985,207.

• Turning to the Treasury futures market, speculators have also increased their net short positions across various maturities. The CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures saw an increase of 46,091 contracts, pushing their total to 1,369,218. The 10-year Treasury futures experienced a rise of 41,621 contracts, reaching 829,575. Not to be left out, the net short position for the CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures surged by 94,942 contracts, totaling 1,350,188. Additionally, the net short position for the CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures grew by 27,868 contracts to 287,710. In contrast, speculators have slightly reduced their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds by 39,398 contracts, now standing at 159,853.

• On the cryptocurrency front, Bitcoin maintains a net long position of 2,458 contracts. 

• In the currency market, the Swiss franc is showing a net short position of -32,909 contracts, while the British pound has dipped to a net short of -52,218 contracts. Conversely, the euro is in a more favorable position with a net long status of 48,866 contracts. The Japanese yen continues to struggle with a significant net short position of -129,567 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 7550 Target 7700

• Below 7530 Target 7600

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 99.20 Target 100.30

• Below 98.80 Target 98.40

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.1710 Target 1.18

• Below 1.1580 Target 1.1450

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3465 Target 1.3525

• Below 1.3425 Target 1.3150

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 159.30 Target 162.20

• Below 159Target 157.95

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 4550 Target 4700

• Below 4500 Target 4100

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 66.5k Target 72k

• Below 66k Target 52.2k