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Daily Market Outlook, November 16, 2022
“Risk sentiment rocked by stray rocket hitting Poland, reports that a missile landed on the Polish border killing at least two caused a dramatic pullback in US markets, however, as it became clearer that the reported ‘missile’ was more debris from a Ukrainian defensive action markets stabilised, overnight President Biden confirmed that the missile was ‘unlikely’ to have been launched from Russia. The timely reminder of the current extreme geo-political risk has set a cautious tone to trading in Asia and Europe this morning. In the UK focus shifts to BoE Governor Bailey's appearance in front of the Monetary Policy Committee, traders will parse comments for further guidance as to the BoE’s rate path, ahead of tomorrow’s budget statement. In the US, markets await retail sales and industrial production data, with higher rates pressuring consumers it is likely that some softness in retail data persists. Yesterday’s softer producer price data was viewed as further support for the FOMC to reduce the rate of rate hikes in the US, however, Fed policymakers retain a cautious tone in their rhetoric, reminding markets that rates still have further to go even if the rate of the rises slow, further Fed speakers today are likely to underline this approach. In other news former President Trump has officially announced his intention to run for the US Presidency in 2024...”
Overnight Headlines
NATO, G7 Offer Support To Poland Over Investigation Into Blasts - RTRS
Biden Says Unlikely Rocket That Hit Poland Was Fired From Russia - BBG
Oil Edges Lower As Missile Strike On Poland Sparks Volatility - BBG
Gold Firms On Fed Slowdown As Investors Assess Poland Blast - RTRS
Currencies On Edge As Traders Assess Risks From Poland - RTRS
Poland Rocket Blast Caused By Missile Fired By Ukrainian Forces - RTRS
Poland Set To Invoke NATO's Article 4, Raise Missile Blast With UN - RTRS
Poland's Duda: No Concrete Evidence On Who Fired Border Missile - RTRS
US Stock Futures Fall As Investors Await October Retail Sales - CNBC
Apple Prepares To Get Made-In-US Chips In Pivot From Asia - BBG
Amazon Commences Job Cuts In Alexa Unit, Cloud Gaming - CNBC
China’s PBoC Governor: Talks With Yellen ‘Very Constructive’ - BBG
ANZ Raise China 2023 Growth Forecast On ‘Policy Normalising’ - BBG
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950
Technicals
Primary support is 3950
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0285
1.0466 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0285
Primary upside objective is 1.0620
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05
Failure below 1.0270 opens a test of 1.0165
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200-10 (1.83BLN), 1.0225-35 (428M), 1.0250-55 (1.02BLN), 1.0350 (394M), 1.0370 (1.93BLN)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1790
1.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1790
Primary upside objective 1.2050
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970
Failure below 1.1780 opens a test of 1.1710
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1695-00 (414M), 1.1800 (319M)
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 141
139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary resistance is 141
Primary downside objective is 136
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138
Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.10
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 140.00-10 (777M), 140.75 (350M), 141.00 (490M), 142.25 (200M), 142.50 (351M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650
.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is .6650
Primary upside objective is .6900
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775
Failure below .6620 opens a test of .6550
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A
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BTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 16800
Technicals
Primary support is 157700
Primary upside objective is 18325
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000
Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!