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Daily Market Outlook, November 17, 2022
“Risk sentiment remains subdued as US yields firmed overnight, leading Asian equity markets lower. Fed speakers showed little signs of pivoting from the party line of higher rates for longer, their robust defense of their stance on rates was supported by another set of decent retail sales data, suggesting the economy was still running hotter than they would like. In the UK all focus today will be on the much anticipated Autumn budget statement, Chancellor Hunt’s statement will be accompanied by economic forecasts from the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), the main focus in these forecasts will be the rate of deterioration in public finances versus the assessment given back in the spring, markets believe there will be a significant decline given lower economic growth and the higher rate environment. The Chancellor is expected to anchor his policy to a determination to reduce debt as a share of GDP over the next five years, reducing the outstanding 50-60Bln whole in the finances through spending cuts and tax rises. On balance stringent fiscal tightening is the name of the game and the Chancellor is set to deliver a message of difficult times ahead. In the Eurozone October CPI is expected to confirm flash readings and show a rise further above the 10% level. In the US data on housing and Philadelphia manufacturing data are expected to show weakness, Feds Bullard also speaks today and traders will parse comments for any signs of caution on the rate path trajectory ...”
Overnight Headlines
Dollar Steadies As US Spending Points To Further Rate Hikes - RTRS
Crypto Lender BlockFi Plans Bankruptcy Filing Within Days In FTX Fallout - BBG
Oil Extends Drop On Demand Concerns As Geopolitical Risks Ease - BBG
Europe Needs To Stay Vigilant On Conserving Energy, Engie Warn - BBG
Gold Slips Overnight As Dollar Gains, Geopolitical Tensions Ease - RTRS
LME Steps Up Scrutiny Of Nickel Trading As Prices Swinging Wildly - BBG
US Futures Rise Slightly, Traders Weigh Latest Earning Currents - CNBC
Amazon Employees Fear ‘No One Safe’ As Layoffs Roil The Ranks - BBG
Cisco’s Revenue Forecast Points To Steady Technology Spending - BBG
Nvidia Sales Beat Estimates As Data-Centre Business Fuels Growth - BBG
Fed Hawk Waller Joins Other Officials Open To Half-Point Hike - BBG
US General Milley: China Not Able To Attack Taiwan Near Term - BBG
GOP Wins US House Majority, Sets Stage For Split Government - RTRS
Mitch McConnell Secures Re-Election As Senate Minority Leader - WSJ
ECB Officials Weigh Slower Rate-Hike Tempo In Half-Point Move - BBG
Hunt To Pitch Spending Cuts, Tax Hikes As UK Faces ‘Into Storm’ - BBG
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950
Technicals
Primary support is 3950
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0285
1.0466 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0285
Primary upside objective is 1.0620
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05
Failure below 1.0270 opens a test of 1.0165
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0300-05 (822M), 1.0330-35 (568M), 1.0350 (215M), 1.0440 (215M)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1850
1.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1850
Primary upside objective 1.2050
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970
Failure below 1.18 opens a test of 1.1710
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1800 (317M).
EUR/GBP: 0.8700-10 (440M), 0.8800 (416M)
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140
139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary resistance is 140
Primary downside objective is 136
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138
Acceptance above 141.60 opens a test of 143.10
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 139.00 (210M), 139.20 (245M), 139.90-00 (812M), 140.10 (895M), 140.50 (280M), 140.75 (200M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650
.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is .6650
Primary upside objective is .6900
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775
Failure below .6620 opens a test of .6550
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6750 (484M)
USD/CAD: 1.3300 (1.03BLN), 1.3700-10 (1.3BLN)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800
Technicals
Intraday 157700 is primary support
Primary upside objective is 18325
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000
Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!