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Daily Market Outlook, November 23, 2022
Overnight Asian markets staged a rebound taking their lead from a positive session on Wall Street, albeit on very low volumes, a pullback in the Dollar and US yields supported sentiment ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors continue to keep one eye on the China Covid headlines, with major regions reintroducing mass testing to access public venues within the coming days. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted rates by 75 bps stating that further tightening is likely, keeping the global rate story firmly on investors' radars. In the US Fed. The Crypto carnage continues to attract market attention as the New York Times reports that beleaguered lender Genesis, has now formally retained restructuring advisors to explore all options including bankruptcy,
For the day ahead: November flash PMI data will be the main focus in the UK and Europe. Market watchers expect UK manufacturing and Services data to show continued contraction. The deceleration in activity suggests a contraction in Q4 GDP which would confirm a technical recession in the UK. In the Eurozone, PMI’s are also likely to remain in contraction given the loss of demand and general economic malaise, this would imply a Q4 GDP decline for the first time since 2021. The US data slate is heavy ahead of the holidays, first up will be US PMI’s which are set to remain below the all important 50 level confirming contraction. Durable goods data, new home sales and University of Michigan sentiment will also be released, but. The main event will be the FOMC meeting minutes. The FOMC raised rates by a further 75 bps at its November meeting, the key question for markets is will the committee slow the rate of hikes and where could rates peak in 2023, with markets betting on a slower increase at the December meeting.
Overnight Headlines
New Zealand Steps Up Inflation Fight With Record Rate Hike
RBNZ Warns Of Growing Wage Pressures Amid Rate Hikes, Inflation
Asia Shares Gain Despite Chinese Covid Case Numbers Rising
NZ’s Robertson Says Economy Faces ‘Significant Challenges’
Australian Private Sector Output Contracts Faster In November
China Tightens Covid Restrictions In Big Cities As Cases Climb
China Should Use Targeted Moves In Covid Control - Economic Daily
China Buys Fewer Chip-Making Machines As US Restrictions Start
Fed’s Mester Says Inflation Key Focus, George Weighing Savings
Bank Of Canada Says Financial System To Weather Rate Hike Risks
Oil Steadies As Traders Look To Price-Cap Plan, Demand In China
API Reports US Crude Stockpiles Decreased 4.8M Bbl Last Week
U.S: G7 Should Soon Unveil Cap Level On Russian Oil, Adjust Regularly
Goldman Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield Of 4% Or More Through 2024
Chinese Brokerages See Stock Market Rebound In H1 2023 - Sec News
Violent Protests Erupt At Apple's Main iPhone Plant In Zhengzhou China
HP Plans Layoffs With PC Demand Slump Stretching Into Next Year
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950
Technicals
Primary support is 3950
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3900 opens a test of 3880
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0230
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0230
Primary upside objective is 1.0620
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.04
Failure below 1.0230 opens a test of 1.0180
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0050-55 (1.4BLN), 1.0060 (408M)
1.0085 (247M), 1.0280 (853M), 1.0300-10 (1.94BLN)
1.0315-20 (344M), 1.0330 (236M), 1.0350-55 (904M)
1.0395-05 (809M), 1.0475 (276M)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1730
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1730
Primary upside objective 1.2050
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970
Failure below 1.17 opens a test of 1.1640
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: GBP/USD: 1.1800 (303M), 1.1850-55 (341M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8725 (358M), 0.8750 (315M), 0.8775 (376M
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143
Technicals
Primary resistance is 143
Primary downside objective is 136
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138
Acceptance above 143.30 opens a test of 145
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 140.00 (900M), 141.25-30 (371M), 141.40-45 (225M) 141.75-85 (873M), 142.00 (491M), 142.50 220M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6560
Technicals
Primary support is .6560
Primary upside objective is .6900
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775
Failure below .6560 opens a test of .6508
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6600 (342M), 0.6700 (226M)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16600
Technicals
Intraday 16600 is primary resistance
Primary downside objective is 15000
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 15500
Acceptance above 16700 opens a test of 17100
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!