SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 3/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~61 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6650/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6720 SUP 6567
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6689
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6630
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6705
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6658/48
DAILY RANGE RES 6822 SUP 6707
2 SIGMA RES 6880 SUP 6650
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.75
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT 6792 (SEE TRADE SET UP VIDEO FOR DETAILS)
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET 6792>DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. Equities Market Update - October 2, 2025
Market Overview
Date: October 2, 2025
Time: 8:29 PM UTC
S&P 500: +6 bps, closing at 6,715 (MOC: $640M to SELL)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX): +37 bps, at 24,492
Russell 2000 (R2K): +66 bps, at 2,458
Dow Jones: +17 bps, at 46,519
Volume: 18.7 billion shares traded vs. YTD daily average of 16.8 billion shares
Volatility Index (VIX): +209 bps, at 16.63
WTI Crude: -172 bps, at $60.72
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: -8 bps, at 4.09%
Gold: -41 bps, at $3,881
DXY (Dollar Index): +15 bps, at 97.86
Bitcoin: +270 bps, at $120,761
Market Sentiment
Stocks remained relatively unchanged at the index level, but there was notable single-stock volatility.
HF VIP vs. Most Short (GSPRHVMS): Down ~2.5%, with the pair now -10% over the past month.
Megacap Tech vs. Non-Profitable Tech: Traded -2.5%, raising questions about the performance of NFLX, MSFT, and GOOGL compared to NVDA, AVGO, AAPL, and META.
Tesla (TSLA): Finished -5% after a 'sell the news' event post-delivery numbers, despite being up ~25% over the last three weeks.
Notable Stock Movements
FICO: +17% following the announcement to sell scores directly to lenders instead of through credit bureaus. GIR remains bullish on FICO due to potential revenue growth.
Credit Bureaus (EFX and TRU): Down 8%-10% as investors assess the impact on EPS from lost profit streams.
Pharma Sector Update
Pharma stocks took a breather after yesterday's rally.
Prior to the PFE deal, the sector was trading at a 38% valuation discount to the S&P 500, which has now narrowed to 30%. This suggests potential for further valuation improvements.
Client Activity Overview
Overall activity levels rated a 4 on a 1-10 scale.
Floor activity increased by +446 bps compared to a 30-day average of +22 bps.
Client activity was muted:
Large Orders (LOs): Small net buyers (demand in healthcare and macro vs. supply in discretionary and tech)
Hedge Funds (HFs): Small net sellers (supply in communication services and tech)
Year-to-Date Performance
S&P 500: +14% year-to-date in 2025.
Historical context: Only four other instances where SPX is up this much at this point in the calendar (25-year lookback).
Past Performance:
2024: +20.3% (closed the year +24%)
2021: +17.7% (closed the year +28.8%)
2019: +17.1% (closed the year +28.7%)
2013: +15.9% (closed the year +26.4%)
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The current trajectory suggests potential for SPX to reach 7,300+.
For further insights or specific stock analysis, feel free to ask!
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!