Bitcoin Higher Amidst USD Downturn
BTC Turning Higher Again
Bitcoin prices are turning higher again today with crypto assets in general benefiting from a weaker US Dollar on the back of suspected BOJ intervention yesterday. BTC futures were higher through much of April before the rally lost steam over the week. However, with risk assets rallying across the board, there is renewed hope for a BTRC breakout near-term, particularly if USD stays weaker. With the risk of more BOJ intervention next week (repeating the pattern we saw last time around in 2024), USD could be pushed lower again near-term, creating room for a BTC breakout.
US/Iran War Impact
The broader focus for now, though, remains on the US/Iran war and elevated tensions and stalled negotiations mean the risk of a spike higher in USD cannot be ruled out near-term. For now, it looks as though Trump is willing to remain patient while maintaining the ceasefire, however, if traders get any sense that his patience is wearing thin and fresh US military action appears forthcoming, this could cause a fresh wave of safe haven buying in USD, leading BTC lower. On the other hand, if we get a breakthrough in negotiations and a deal starts to look more likely (or we get a short-term compromise on the Strait of Hormuz), this should help cool oil prices, sending USD lower, and creating room for a fresh move higher in BCT and risk assets generally.
Technical Views
BTC
For now, BTC remains within the corrective bull channel, capped by the $80,185 level. While above $74,270, focus is on a breakout move higher with $84,530 the next bull target ahead of the bigger $94,450 level.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% and 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.