Daily Market Outlook, February 12, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, February 12, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Asian markets continued their winning streak, climbing for the fifth consecutive day, as attractive valuations and promising growth prospects drew in eager investors. Meanwhile, US Treasuries remained under pressure following robust employment data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, reaching a fresh all-time high. So far this year, the index has surged about 13%, marking its strongest annual start compared to the S&P 500 in over two decades. In contrast, the S&P 500 has only edged up by 1.4%, placing it 69th among 92 global indices. Leading the charge is South Korea, boasting an impressive 31% gain, making it the top-performing market worldwide. Futures on equity indices hinted that Asia’s rally on Thursday could ripple into European and US markets. As global investors shift some of their focus away from the Dollar, Asian markets are enjoying a stellar performance, outpacing their counterparts in the US and Europe. With industries pouring billions into artificial intelligence, reshaping and disrupting sectors across the board, investors are strategically positioning themselves to ride this transformative wave. In currency markets, the Yen emerged as the star among its G-10 peers, while Japan’s long-term bonds soared after Prime Minister Takaichi secured a resounding election victory, easing concerns over fiscal challenges. On the commodities front, both gold and silver edged lower, while the Dollar extended its losing streak to six sessions.
Kevin Hasset’s warning about weak job numbers was unfounded, as January non-farm payrolls rose to 130k from December's revised 48k, surpassing the 65k median forecast. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.4%, supported by a 528k household survey job gain despite increased participation. However, job creation remains uneven, with health and social care contributing 124k of the 130k payroll growth. Other sectors like professional services (+34k) and construction (+33k) showed gains, but overall market pressure persists. Annual revisions cut 2022 payroll growth to 181k (15k/month), with significant downward adjustments in early-year data (-135k/month) compared to later months (-35k/month). Further revisions could follow in August, but current figures remain below the Fed’s 60k benchmark, leaving risks in the labour market.
December's UK GDP growth met expectations at 0.1% m/m, but November's revision down by 0.1% led to a slight q/q miss (0.1% vs. 0.2% expected). Y/y growth slowed to 1.0% (down from 1.2% in Q3) and further to 0.7% based on monthly data. Private consumption rose 0.3% q/q as expected, while government spending undershot slightly (0.4% vs. 0.5%). Investment turned negative (-0.1% vs. +0.1%), with business investment notably weak (-2.7% q/q), though the broader trend remains positive. Growth was sluggish due to budget uncertainty, with early Q1 data showing a modest rebound. However, y/y growth will likely weaken further due to a strong Q1 last year skewing comparisons.
Overnight Headlines
Trump And Xi Expected To Extend Trade Truce At Beijing Summit
US Budget Gap Shrinks 17% For First Third Of 2026 Fiscal Year
US House Defies Trump And Votes To End His Canada Tariffs
BoC: Trump Trade Deal Review Poses ‘Important Risk’ To Outlook
RBA Open To Hike Again If Inflation Proves Sticky, Governor Says
Japan Investors Remain Wary Takaichi Will Spur Another Meltdown
Yen Gains On Prospect Of A Fiscally Disciplined Takaichi Admin
Macron On Collision Course With Germany Over ‘Buy European’
Bank Of France Sees Sustained Economic Growth In Early 2026
Trump Tells Netanyahu His ‘Preference’ Is To Reach Iran Deal
Pentagon Prepares Second Aircraft Carrier To Deploy To MidEast
Russia Blocks Meta’s WhatsApp Messaging Service
Cisco Gives Strong Sales Forecast In Latest Sign Of AI Inroads
McDonald’s Growth Beats Estimates As Value Strategy Gains Ground
Novo To Follow Lilly And Sell Obesity Shot Wegovy In Vials
SoftBank-Backed Icertis Said To Work With GS On Potential $5B Sale
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1750-60 (3.81BLN), 1.1800 (385M), 1.1875 (432M)
1.1925 (301M), 1.1960-75 (664M), 1.1995-00 (475M)
USD/JPY: 152.95-00 (700M), 154.00 (950M), 155.00 (242M)
USD/CHF: 0.7550 (300M). GBP/USD: 1.3600-05 (335M)
CFTC Positions as of February 7th:
Speculators are making moves in the Treasury futures market! In the latest update, they’ve ramped up their net short positions across several categories. For CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures, the net short position surged by 67,934 contracts, reaching a total of 2,158,980 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures saw an increase of 3,263 contracts, pushing the net short position to 729,414. The 2-year Treasury futures took an even bigger leap, with speculators adding 128,603 contracts to hit a new total of 1,347,602.There was a slight trimming in the UltraBond Treasury futures net short position, which dropped by 4,382 contracts to settle at 269,089. Meanwhile, CBOT US Treasury bonds futures saw a modest rise of 5,437 contracts, bringing the net short position to 13,604.
Equity futures, speculators in equity funds boosted their net short positions on S&P 500 CME futures by 17,266 contracts, now totaling 437,953 contracts. However, equity fund managers showed a more bullish outlook, increasing their net long positions by 17,515 contracts to reach an impressive 927,508.
In currencies and Bitcoin, the latest data shows Bitcoin holding steady with a net long position of 1,008 contracts. The Swiss franc posted a net short position of -40,717 contracts, while the British pound recorded a net short position of -13,911 contracts. The euro stood out with a strong net long position of 163,361 contracts. Finally, the Japanese yen showed a net short position of -19,222 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6900 Target 7040
Below 6890 Target 6840
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960
Below 1.1730 Target 1.1570
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760
Below 1.3570 Target 1.3490
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 154.35 Target 157.50
Below 153.50 Target 151
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4900 Target 5325
Below 4880 Target 4700
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 71k Target 75k
Below 70k Target 53k
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!