Daily Market Outlook, November 13, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
President Donald Trump officially ended the longest government shutdown in U.S. history with a late-night signing ceremony in the Oval Office. The event followed a scheduled dinner with Jamie Dimon and prominent Wall Street leaders. The timeline for the full restoration of government operations remains uncertain, leaving many wondering when normal services will resume. In financial markets, the release of delayed data is now a top priority. Investors are keenly awaiting September's jobs report, which could be one of the first key indicators to emerge. With recent private surveys showing softer figures, there’s speculation this report might bolster arguments for a rate cut. However, some data gaps may never be filled, as the White House has suggested that October’s employment and Consumer Price Index reports may not be published at all. Asian stocks paused for breath as major indexes edged higher, while Japan’s Topix reached new heights. This follows record-breaking performances from the Dow, FTSE, and STOXX600, hinting at a subtle market shift away from AI-driven investments. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has emphasised the importance of keeping interest rates low and called for strong collaboration with the Bank of Japan. On Thursday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed alignment with the government's priority of boosting economic growth. Speaking in parliament, he shared his vision of achieving steady inflation paired with rising wages, reflecting a unified approach to revitalising the economy. Noting that underlying inflation is gradually moving closer to the central bank's target, suggesting a subtle shift in the economic landscape. Japan's yen is facing fresh challenges as the country's new prime minister has been urging the central bank to take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates. The yen recently hit an all-time low of 179.49 against the euro and hovered near a nine-month low against the U.S. dollar at 154.94. On Wednesday, the yen briefly dropped to 155.05 per dollar, prompting Japan's finance minister to issue a warning to traders, signalling that the government is closely monitoring the situation and hinting at potential market intervention.
The ONS reported that the economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, falling 0.1 percentage points short of both consensus expectations and the Bank of England's (BoE) November Monetary Policy Report forecast from last week. The decline in production within the motor manufacturing sector, driven by the cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, has notably impacted the results, as evidenced by the drag on overall manufacturing. The -0.1% month-on-month GDP figure for September, coinciding with the timing of this disruption, further underscores its significant effect. On a brighter note, nine out of fourteen sub-sectors in the services sector recorded growth in Q3, which appears more optimistic than suggested by some recent surveys. Additionally, the 0.2% month-on-month growth in the services sector for September signals a recovery after a weaker period earlier in the quarter. However, the reported 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth still falls short of the BoE's forecast, made with awareness of the likely manufacturing disruptions caused by the cyberattack. As a result, market perceptions of this data are likely to align with the weaker labour market report from earlier in the week, reinforcing expectations of a higher probability for a BoE rate cut in December.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projects significant expansion in the stablecoin market, anticipating it will reach a staggering valuation of $3 trillion in the near future. This growth in stablecoins is expected to drive increased demand for U.S. government debt instruments, as investors seek stable and low-risk assets in times of market volatility. Stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged to traditional fiat currencies or other assets, have gained popularity as a means of facilitating transactions in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The surge in adoption and usage of stablecoins could have profound implications for the financial markets, liquidity, and monetary policy. As the stablecoin market evolves, it may attract more institutional investors, further intertwining it with the traditional financial system and potentially influencing the dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities
Overnight Headlines
Trump Signs Bill Ending Longest US Government Shutdown In History
Australian Unemployment Rate Falls As Hiring Exceeds Forecasts
UK GDP Set To Post Small Rise As Markets Eye December Rate Cut
UK, Mercosur Prepare To Launch Trade Talks Amid Tariff Chaos
EU Prepares New Plan To Implement Trade Agreement With US
Fed’s Collins: Likely Apt To Keep On Hold, Sees ‘High Bar’ For Cuts
Fed’s Perli Encourages Use Of Standing Repo Facility Amid Liquidity Stress
Treasury Yields Fall As October Data Risks Never Being Released
German Experts Slam Berlin Spending Plans, Cut GDP Forecast
Germany Risks Growth Hurt From Debt Bazooka, Warn Top Advisers
Cisco Delivers Upbeat Rev Forecast In Latest AI-Fuelled Quarter
Anthropic To Invest $50B In New US Data Centres
Microsoft To Use OpenAI’s Custom Chip Work For In-House AI Chips
Waymo To Roll Out Driverless Taxis On Highways In Three US Cities
US Sanctions Firms From China To India Over Iranian Weapons Ties
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1575-80 (1.7BLN), 1.1590 (2.4BLN), 1.1600 (1.7BLN)
1.1610-20 (1.8BLN), 1.1630 (423M), 1.1650 (1BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7850 (300M), 0.7980 (150M), 0.8060 (200M), 0.8150 (301M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8800 (345M), 0.8850 (574M)
GBP/USD: 1.3000 (320M), 1.3150 (200M)
AUD/USD: 0.6500 (787M), 0.6515-25 (2.2BLN), 0.6600 (493M)
NZD/USD: 0.5635 (312M)
USD/CAD: 1.3975-80 (1.1BLN), 1.1005 (436M), 1.4050 (250M)
USD/JPY: 154.00 (1BLN), 154.20 (450M), 154.45-50 (900M), 155.00 (1.5BLN)
155.40 (390M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6814 Target 6936
Below 6794 Target 6699
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1591 Target 1.1683
Below 1.1575 Target 1.1483
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3152 Target 1.3244
Below 1.3122 Target 1.2998
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 154.11 Target 155.34
Below 152.90 Target 151.37
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 4138 Target 4276
Below 4078 Target 3962
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 104.2k Target 106.3k
Below 104k Target 97.7
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!